Most economists spend their careers analyzing the economy. Robert Parry, president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, helps run it.

Q: The nation is said to be losing hundreds of thousands of jobs as manufacturing and service functions move to developing countries such as India. Isn't this having a particularly devastating effect on the Bay Area, as tech companies build their offshore operations?

A: Globalization is having a profound impact on our economy. I think it's positive. The net impact of outsourcing is not clear. There is insourcing, too.

What you're hearing is one side of the ledger. I could give you a short list of the other side of the ledger. The fact that Honda increased its manufacturing (in the United States) 15 percent last year, the fact that Novartis is moving all of its research and development from Switzerland to Massachusetts, the fact that Samsung is going to construct a $500.million semiconductor plant in Texas, the fact that Toyota in 2006 is going to employ 2,000 people in San Antonio to build cars -- you don't hear that talked about.

In fact, I'd make a general statement that in years evenly divisible by four, economic and financial discourse is not objective.

If you looked at things like outsourcing on a net basis, you might come to very different conclusions. It may be negative. But it's not nearly as negative as has been indicated. Some people have decided that they are going to focus on just one part of this whole issue, and I think it's appalling.

Longer term, I'm still positive about high tech in the Bay Area. There is no question that we've lost out. But outsourcing as a primary contributor, at this point, I don't see it.

These issues are not simple. In this district and particularly three or four states of this district, I believe that globalization and what's happening to productivity are strong points. We should be careful that we realize that and do not as a nation take actions that would be regrettable in the longer term.

© 2004 The San Francisco Chronicle